Thursday, November 18, 2010

2010 Hurricane Predictions: Wrong Again

One of the things I'll be taking aim at here in my blog is how the media and politics affects the business of real estate.  One example of this is how, in the wake of Katrina and the global warming/climate change farce, the major weather prognoticators have over-hyped the threat of hurricanes.

In an uncertain economic environment, the over-hyped threat of natural disasters is another issue that needlessly damages the real estate market in FL.

The fact is that yes, Florida is susceptible to hurricanes, but Sarasota is even less susceptible to hurricanes than the rest of the state.   We have to go back 50 years to find a hurricane with a direct hit on Sarasota, Hurricane Donna in 1960, with 80 mph sustained winds, just barely a Category 1 hurricane:  http://www.hurricanecity.com/city/sarasota.htm .  Hurricane Charley, in 2004, hit the eastern part of Sarasota county, which primarily is home to fruit orchards and cattle operations.

Here's a well-researched Reuters blog on how badly wrong hurricane predictions have been for the past few years.  http://reut.rs/981Qti

Contrast the hype over hurricanes versus tornadoes.  Florida isn't hyped in the media for tornadoes because we aren't in Tornado Alley.  However, while Florida ranks #1 for the number of tornadoes, we do not show up in the top 10 states in tornado deaths or number of killer tornadoes:  http://www.tornadoproject.com/toptens/topten1.htm 

So potential FL real estate buyers, take the media hype over hurricanes with a grain of salt.  It's too beautiful here to worry about it.

No comments:

Post a Comment